Ian Sherr traveled to Selma, Alabama, to revisit its civil rights legacy and to find out exactly what Barack Obama’s presidency means to the people who struggled all those years ago.

FORT COLLINS—Marilyn Musgrave should be a shoo-in for reelection based on the overwhelmingly Republican electorate here in Colorado’s 4th congressional district. Instead, the three-term incumbent who went to Washington pushing a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage is fighting for her political life. This staunch conservative spends her time on the stump talking about her bi-partisan work in the House, while ads attacking her Democratic opponent flood the airwaves.

In case the message wasn’t getting through, she stressed the point to reporters after the candidates’ first debate.

“I’m the one on the stage that has demonstrated that I can work in a bi-partisan way,” she said. “I have voted to override the President’s veto three times. I’ve stood up to the leadership in my own party.”

Musgrave’s effort to distance herself from the social conservative agenda that first  got her elected  (not to mention an unpopular President) was actually underway before the 2008 campaign.  Since her margin of victory narrowed—she won less than 50 percent of the vote in a three-way race in 2006—the Congresswoman has struggled to retool herself as a lawmaker responsive to the needs of a district dominated by agriculture and small business. She helped secure subsidies to the district’s farmers through the passage of the 2007 Farm Bill and has been an outspoken opponent of the Army’s attempt to expand a base in Southeastern Colorado into ranching territory.

Her efforts may not be enough.

The perfect storm of a collapsing economy, unhappiness with Republicans both nationally and in the Colorado legislature and Musgrave’s earlier role as an outspoken  champion of the conservative right social agenda has put her behind in the polls.

Democratic challenger Betsy Markey is now positioned to join the list of Democrats riding a wave of blue into public office in the state. The race has received national attention and drawn millions of dollars in advertising money from the congressional campaign committees and independent groups. Markey, a former aide to Sen. Ken Salazar, is on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s list of “Red to Blues,” which highlights candidates to donors across the country.

State Senator Steve Johnson, a local Republican, said that while Musgrave has succeeded somewhat in refashioning her image, forces beyond her control could doom the race.

“There’s a real tide against Republicans,” he said. “It’s hard for an individual candidate to swim against that.”

On top of the national disenchantment with the Republican Party, there is an acute unhappiness here in Northeastern Colorado. Ideological fights on state issues, particularly the one over the so called Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, have pushed many moderate Republicans and independent voters away from the GOP. Musgrave’s stand on gay marriage has become a flashpoint for these moderates.

“I’m sick and tired of talking about god, guns, gays and abortion,” said Bill Kaufman, a former state representative and three-time Republican Party Chair in Larimer County, the district’s most populous. Kaufman, who plans to vote a nearly straight Democratic ticket in November, said the concentration on the conservative social agenda has cost Republicans their status as the pro-business party.

“The Democrats better represent me,” he said.

Colorado’s 4th Congressional District is shaped like a giant “L,” stretching the state’s entire eastern border before wrapping around in the north more than halfway to Utah. It’s more than 300 miles from corner to corner, reaching from Rocky Mountain peaks to the high plains. While politically diverse, the district’s voters trend to the right in the Western spirit of fiscal conservatism and wariness of federal government. But party loyalty does not run deep here—some can barely remember which party they are registered with—and Democrats and independents are gaining. In Weld and Larimer counties, home to most of the district’s people, Democratic and independent rolls have increased by more than 16,000 each since 2004, while Republicans have added less than 4,000. As of October 29, there were 109,679 Republicans, 84,698 Democrats and 99,372 unaffiliated active voters in the two counties.

But there is still a core of conservative voters, and Musgrave is still the incumbent. Her base lies more to the east, where the mountains flatten into the plains and agriculture drives the economy. At a Weld County Republicans breakfast at Harvest restaurant in Greeley, preacher Sam Grant spoke about some of those social issues that have alienated Kaufman.

Musgrave grew up in the east and people know her here, a detail that goes a long way with voters. Steve Ivie, a contractor at Lowe’s who had come to the breakfast that October morning, said morals are his number one issue. He knows Musgrave’s husband and is more comfortable voting for someone he has dealt with.

“Marilyn Musgrave is going to represent the little guy,” he said.

Musgrave’s opposition to the $700 billion rescue package was well received here, though whether it will help her stand apart from Markey, who also opposed the measure, is unclear.

Professor  John Straayer, who teaches political science at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, says demographic shifts in the region are helping Democrats.

“People have been moving in from the East Coast, Midwest, West Coast and I think that’s provided a little different mix than what we’ve had traditionally,” he said. The Latino vote is growing too, he said, and tends to lean Democratic. Latino’s make up almost 30 percent of the population in Weld County.

The key for Markey is winning independents, who now make up about a third of the district’s voters. The problem is, they don’t really know who she is.  Bob Boswell, who owns a Western Sizzlin restaurant outside Greeley and is registered Republican, said he is not voting for Musgrave but has not committed to Markey either because he doesn’t know enough about her. The Markey campaign is well aware of the large undecided vote in Weld and is focusing its resources to make sure these voters get to know her.

“That’s where our field program is important. We’re walking neighborhoods, we’re making phone calls every night,” she said. “Our universe is the undecided voters.”

Markey said they are targeting Latino voters and young Republican women in particular.

The image battle has taken an ugly turn in a series of negative ads targeting both candidates. Outside groups have targeted Musgrave—an ad by Defenders of Wildlife calls her one of the most corrupt members of Congress. Musgrave ran her own attack ads accusing Markey of abusing her position as an aide to Sen. Salazar to gain government contracts. A swirl of criminal complaints from both sides included a letter to the US Justice Department from a local Republican chairman requesting an investigation in Markey’s time with Salazar. The mere filing of that request allowed Musgrave to run a  subsequent ad stating that Markey “could spend” five years in prison.

Turn-out could be the deciding factor in the election, and Markey could benefit from the Barack Obama campaign’s unprecedented ground operation in the area. The campaign has five field offices in the district, compared to only two for Senator John McCain, and has been registering a lot of voters, said Scott Doyle, county clerk in Larimer.

“The Obama campaign has been in here doing a really good job,” he said.

Democrats have not held the seat for more than 30 years, and Markey said she has learned from past mistakes—previous candidates have not raised enough money or had support from the national party. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi headed a fundraiser for Markey in Denver in early October and later put out a plea to DCCC supporters to contribute to the candidate.

Markey out-raised Musgrave in the third quarter, with almost $720,000 coming in compared to about $600,000, though Musgrave still had more cash on hand on October 15, when third quarter reports were filed.

Many votes are being cast ahead of November 4th—Doyle said Larimer is pushing 100,000 mail-in ballots, or more than half of registered voters—and the winner may come down to who suffers less from the wrath of voters.  Washington is a long way from here, and one thing pretty much everyone agrees on is that Congress and the White House, and both parties, have totally bungled the economy. Senator Johnson said voters in the area look for someone who can get the job done, regardless of party, and this explains why “bi-partisan” is one of the most frequent words out of Musgrave’s mouth these days and why party label likely won’t help any candidate here. The question, Johnson said, will be who can stand for something else.

It is this energy that Colorado Democrats up and down the ticket are counting on come Election Day to push them over the edge and complete this state’s political makeover, sending its nine electoral votes to a Democrat for the first time since 1992.

“There’s only one choice,” said C.B. Lorson, who is registered as unaffiliated. The Fort Collins resident said it was clear who won the debate. “If I were undecided and had an I.Q. above 70, I’d choose Obama.”

Unaffiliated voters like Lorson will be key in Colorado and in Larimer County, which encompasses Fort Collins. Independents outnumber Democrats both here and statewide and are nearly as numerous as those registered Republican.

Final registration numbers for 2008 aren’t available yet, but as of August, the Democratic Party had gained nearly 4,000 active voters in Larimer County since the 2004 election. The Republican rolls had decreased  by about 5,000 active voters during the same period.

Larimer  stretches from the Front Range of the Rockies to the western edge of the plainsand is the most populous county in the state’s hotly contested 4th Congressional District. The district traditionally has been solidly Republican, and the party’s voters still outnumber Democrats by a safe margin, but GOP incumbent Marilyn Musgrave nearly lost in 2006 and is in trouble again this year.

Her opponent, Democrat Betsy Markey, was leading by 7 points, according to an August poll commissioned by the Capitol Hill newspaper, Roll Call.  The same poll, the most recent independent survey of the district, showed Markey with a 30-point lead among independents. That poll gave McCain 48 percent of the vote within the district, compared to 46 percent for Obama, with a 4-point margin of error.  A statewide poll released by the Denver Post last week found McCain and Obama tied at 44 percent.

Nathaniel Volckening, a student at Front Range Community College in Fort Collins is one of Larimer County’s new voters. The 19-year-old said the Democratic candidates in all the debates had spoken more directly to the questions while the Republicans seemed to talk around any challenges. Volckening went to a Democratic caucus in February and now thinks being in a swing town in a swing state is exactly the right place to be.

“You can have a positive impact on Obama’s campaign,” he said.

Minnesotans of all political stripes congregated at house parties, restaurants and community centers throughout suburban Minneapolis to watch Senators McCain and Obama squabble over foreign policy issues and offer solutions to the financial crisis looming over this year’s election.

“It’s still a draw for me,” said Mark Johnson, who described himself as a Libertarian who has decided to vote for a major candidate this year because Minnesota is a battleground state. “It was useful and informative, but there were no big surprises,, ” he said of the debate, the first of three the presidential candidates will hold between now and October 15.

In recent weeks, polls have shown Obama pulling ahead in Minnesota, which went Democratic in 2000 and 2004. But the toss-up race for an open seat here in the state’s 3rd Congressional District offers a window on the battle both campaigns are waging for the votes of moderates and independents like Johnson.

The seat in this affluent suburb of Minneapolis has been held by the GOP since 1961, and Rep. Jim Ramstad, a moderate Republican, is vacating it after 18 years in Congress. Erik Paulsen, a former majority leader for the GOP in the Minnesota House of Representatives, and Democratic newcomer and Iraq war veteran, Ashwin Madia are vying to replace him.

Some of Madia’s supporters were among the 250 people who joined the Veterans for Obama at the Hopkins VFW, 10 miles east of downtown Minneapolis, to cheer on the Democratic candidate and hiss at his Republican foe.

Bill Cochrane, who was awarded a Purple Heart for his heroics in the Vietnam War, said his support for Obama was shored up in the debate.

“I was skeptical of Obama and I still don’t know him,” said the veteran once a  faithful Republican, who voted twice for George H.W. Bush. “In this debate he appeared to be the real deal. I am leaving here with a higher confidence that he can lead our country.”

Across town in Brooklyn Park, Tom and Kelly Gildow watched the debate with some close friends and family. Their middle income neighborhood launched former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura’s political career by electing the one time wrestler mayor in 1990.

Kelly Gildow, a Republican, said she will vote for McCain in November because he is “no nonsense” on national security and won’t raise taxes.

“He slam dunked the foreign policy issues. It’s hard to believe anything Obama said because of the lack of experience,” she said. “When Obama was talking about attacking Pakistan, I thought, wow, he showed how frightening it would be to have our national security in his hands.”

Supporters of both candidates claimed their man best addressed the nation’s economic concerns, but tended to agree that no one delivered a knock-out punch.

“It was like a fight when a guy is constantly jabbing you, he isn’t hit with a big blow, but he is making you feel uncomfortable,” said Republican Bill Ferguson, handing McCain the victory by decision.

I’m a hot commodity in these presidential elections. And if you’re under 30, you are too. It doesn’t matter that you’ve never picked up a newspaper and I’m a journalism student. We’re practically the same person.

That is, according to the media these days. I’m in my late twenties so I’m part of that amorphous “youth vote.” You know, it’s the one that encompasses everyone from Peace Corp volunteers to young corporate lawyers. Suddenly, I speak for all of them.

The truth is there really isn’t a simple way to define this age bracket. I have peers who write for three different political blogs and those who blink in confusion when NAFTA is mentioned. My friend doesn’t talk to her older brother about politics without verbal warfare, even though they fall into the same “youth vote” category.

I’m supposed to be speaking to you about the young person’s perspective on the presidential election, as if I embody all the concerns and opinions of my generation. Now that many Americans have become political junkies—come on, admit it, you YouTube the political ads too—we would be wise to take the statistically comfortable, ideologically impossible groupings with a grain of salt. These include categorizations like Latino block and African-American voice.

This doesn’t mean I’m not worth listening to, but I’m one young voice, not all of them. Otherwise, I’d be a sleep-deprived college graduate who also dropped out of high school and traveled the world teaching sustainable farming. I’d have earned my masters in Asian American literature just before I got my job as a tech analyst in Silicon Valley and went to Iraq.

Candidates would do well to focus on the nuances of this voting group. And the media would too. I say, on behalf of us all.

On Friday, McCain said that “Al Qaeda or another extremist group might attempt spectacular attacks in Iraq to try to tilt the U.S. election against me.” This is a new page in the republican playbook, which they are bound to use more in the coming months. Republicans know that this fear-mongering tactic will work in the general elections and don’t want to play their card too soon.

Senator Hillary Clinton used this method once in the Texas primary with her “3 a.m.” ad, focusing on the idea of the U.S. president’s potential to lead the country during terrorist attacks.

But, if Senator Clinton is so compelling in her efforts to fix domestic shortcomings and Senator Obama seems able to engage more American in politics and form a more united America, when it comes to foreign policy, Senator McCain has the final word, as he can rely on his longtime service in the Army and Senate.

Obama’s superior sense of judgment and Clinton’s new approach toward foreign policy separate them from the republican candidate. However, when it comes to threats to the nation, people tend to vote somebody who has already been tested.

The fear factor will lead people to choose a candidate who is experienced enough. McCain’s allegations show that his advisors are readying people for the day they choose their candidates not because of their passion, excellent plans and inspiring speeches, but simply for their ability to properly react should any national security threat come up.

Yet among the three remaining candidates, McCain is the weakest when it comes to domestic issues and has no significant plan when it comes to economy, health care and education.

Regarding the importance and urgency of capturing the White House, nothing can better serve republicans than images of “fear” and “foreign threat.” So, the question now is in what manner republicans will make national security and foreign policy their first priority in the coming months. If you find it hard to guess, remember the months before the Iraq invasion in April 2003. Remember?
(Updates: Don’t miss this on Washpost blog: A McCain Gaffe in Jordan)