On the heels of their debate in Cleveland, Ohio–the final debate before crucial primaries in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont–this advertisement comes as an exclamation point at the end of a very contentious week between Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama.

Last week, Clinton said she felt honored to be in the race against the junior Senator from Illinois. Then, a few days later, she publicly shamed Sen. Obama for his campaign tactics. Then, a photo of Barak Obama in traditional muslim dress from a visit to Africa a few years ago. Obama’s campaign struck back, crying foul as radio commentators rushed to emphasize his middle name, Hussein, matching it with the given name of Iraq’s former dictator.

Since then, all of the talking heads at CNN, MSNBC, Fox News and CNBC have all been trying to pick apart the nature of the Clinton campaign’s emotional about-face.

Many analysts have suggested that the Clinton campaign is trying everything they can–being nice, being mean, going off point, getting back on point, moving the point, etc.

What’s interesting about this ad, however, is that while it resembles other similar advertising campaigns from the past, it has not received the same response so far.

Take, for example, Lyndon B. Johnson’s campaign ad from 1964, affectionately called “Daisy.”

And although it ran only once in the middle of a monday evening NBC broadcast, the ad was widely credited as a major contributor to the President’s reelection against conservative Republican, Barry Goldwater.

But that isn’t what the commentators are talking about. Instead, many are referencing Walter Mondale’s ads from the 1984 election against then sitting President Ronald Reagan.

(note, please excuse the opening ad)

Lest we all forget, Mondale did not win that one. But that isn’t the point.

No matter what the ad reminds us of, this is a new low for the Clinton Campaign. For a candidate who lambasts President Bush for his politics of fear, this is an unimpressive twist.

- Ian Sherr

It wasn’t quite the love-fest of the CNN debate in Los Angeles, California, three weeks ago, but Clinton repeatedly shied away from challenging her rival, even when the debate’s moderators gave her ample opportunities to do so.

The two moments that seem to have stood out the most to the pundits were when Clinton ridiculed Obama as the candidate of “change you can Xerox,” referring to his borrowed language from Massachusetts Governor, Deval Patrick.

Obama dismissed the charge out of hand, adding in a campaign debate, “What we shouldn’t be doing is tearing each other down, we should be lifting the country up.”

The other memorable moment came from Clinton’s closing remarks.

“You know, no matter what happens in this contest, I am honored, I am honored to be here with Barack Obama,” Clinton said. “I am absolutely honored.”

CNN referred to it as the candidate’s “Casablanca” moment, in which the movie’s protagonist, Rick, said, “It doesn’t take much to see that the problems of three little people don’t amount to a hill of beans in this crazy world.”

But in the final analysis, Schneider doesn’t think Hillary did enough.

With her back against the ropes — and most likely only one primary loss away from the end of her presidential bid — Clinton simply chose to throw too few punches to clearly counter Obama’s increasing strength.

What’s become clear is that it’s going to take a lot more than cute and pithy phrases for Hillary to make a substantive attack about Barack.

If nothing else, tonight’s performance showed that negative campaigning is going to be a lot harder for McCain if Obama wins the nomination.

Read the CNN article here and the widely published AP story here.

He called it a “seminal decision” not to intervene with force, taken partly out of the desire not to send US troops into another Muslim country.

Other than sounding more and more like a moderate with each passing day, President Bush added that he believes aid money has a strong impact on the region.

“We have people who are suffering from disease and hunger and hopelessness. The only way a radical can recruit is to find somebody who’s hopeless,” he said.

In his defense, it’s a hard decision to go in militarily for a variety of reasons. First, they usually believe a lot more in the fight than we do. And because it’s not a situation that can be fixed militarily, it’s hard to send in troops who don’t know how to solve their problems. It’s not a military that’s going to solve Darfur’s problems, it’s going to be Darfur. The Europeans and Canadians have all failed at this throughout history. Why would we be any different?And then there’s Black Hawk Down. But President Bush decided not to answer with those remarks.

“I just happen to believe their government could do more to enhance a free society in their region,” he said.

Count the Delegates, If You Can

by Ian Sherr

Just when I thought I had figured out why the Democratic Party has superdelegates, Nancy Pelosi comes along and says I have got it all backward.

“The superdelegates were established to give many more people at the grassroots level the opportunity to go to the convention and be really the overwhelming majority of who will decide this convention,” the House Speaker told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer last Thursday.

With a straight face.

That was after Super Tuesday, which was supposed to decide the next Democratic nominee. Instead, presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have battled themselves to a delegate draw that party elders may have to settle.

I don’t know what’s worse – Pelosi pretending that rank-and-file Democrats will get to decide anything this year, or the convoluted system created to ensure they would not. It was adopted in 1976, to reformulate the reforms of 1972, which came in response to the chaos of 1968, when the Democrats tore themselves apart in the streets of Chicago after convention delegates chose Hubert Humphrey, who had never won a primary that year.

But I get ahead of myself.

The simple way to explain it is that there are 4,049 delegates available in the national Democratic primaries and caucuses, and that a candidate needs 2,026 to get nominated. The delegates are divvied up among the 50 states and various U.S. territories by a formula based on voting trends over the past three elections.

Easy, right?

OK, now, as an example, California’s share is 370. Well, actually 441, but that depends on how you’re counting.

Each of the 53 congressional districts in California gets three delegates – except for those that get four, or five or six. The number is determined by how loyal voters in the district have been to the party. What does that mean? I’m sure someone knows.

Nevertheless, that works out to six delegates each for Pelosi’s and U.S. Rep. Barbara Lee’s Bay Area districts, while Democrats from, say, U.S. Rep. Jim Costa’s district in the Central Valley only have three.

Of the 370, or 441, California delegates, 241 were awarded to the presidential contenders based on how voters within each congressional district cast their ballots on Super Tuesday.

Now, included in the 370, or 441, delegates are also Party Leaders and Elected Officials, or “PLEOs” for short. These are essentially big-city mayors, legislators and other state or local elected officials.

But not all Party Leaders and Elected Officials can be PLEOs in the California delegation to the convention. They must first fill out Form C on the California Democratic Party’s Web site, and pledge to vote for a candidate who received at least 15 percent of the statewide vote during the primary. Only 48 PLEOs get to vote at the national convention, and they must be confirmed in a vote by 241 district-level delegates. Got it? Good.

Now for the tricky part – the 71 so-called superdelegates, generally members of Congress and Democratic National Committee officials, who get to vote however they want to at the convention.

And while there are technically 71 of them, it turns out there are actually only 66, because four of the members of Congress are also members of the national committee. That leaves one poor soul who’s been lost in the arithmetic. Party leaders are hoping he or she (Democratic Party rules are very strict about gender-equalization) can be found before the convention.

So, according to the California Democratic Party, there are 71, or 66, superdelegates, 241 district delegates, 81 at-large delegates, 48 PLEOs, 5 “uncommitted” add-ons (not to be confused with the superdelegates), 22 alternates, 62 other alternates, and a partridge in a pear tree.

Does that all make sense? Yeah, me neither.

The grassroots organizers who Pelosi said have greater power in this year’s convention may soon learn exactly how much when the party leadership stands up and makes the ultimate decision to show either Barack or Hillary the door.

Published in Capitol Weekly

As Super Tuesday dawns in the state with the greatest trove of convention delegates, members of California’s Democratic congressional delegation face an uncomfortable choice in backing Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. Some have decided that making no endorsement at all is the better part of wisdom.

“I just didn’t see any reason, if my district is evenly divided between the candidates, for making half of my Democratic supporters mad at me,” said Rep. Pete Stark, D-Fremont, who has already cast his absentee ballot but will keep his vote private for now. “So I just thought that I would wait until Tuesday and see if there was a clear winner then.”

The topic is so sensitive that the question alone sends congressional aides running for cover, particularly those who work for freshmen facing tough or even possibly tough reelection bids in 2008. A spokesman for Tracy Rep. Jerry McNerney said the congressman, who unseated seven-term Republican incumbent Richard Pombo in 2006, has not expressed a preference for any presidential candidate and has no plans to do so. With registered Republicans outnumbering Democrats in the district 42 percent to 38 percent, McNerney is already walking a tightrope for reelection without choosing sides in the primary, a move that would also remind his constituents that he is in fact a Democrat.

McNerney is in good company. Of the 41 Democrats elected to their first House terms in 2006, 23 have thus far remained neutral. “They haven’t figured out who’s the most likely winner,” said Gary Jacobson, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego. “And they want to be on the side of the winner.”

As Speaker of the House, Rep. Nancy Pelosi is officially above the fray, although her close ally Rep. George Miller of Martinez has endorsed Obama, a move widely regarded as a signal about where the Speaker’s sentiment lies. Rep. Mike Honda of San Jose, the vice chairman of the Democratic National Committee, also is neutral. Senators are even more cautious. Twenty-seven of the Senate’s 49 Democrats have yet to make an endorsement, California Sen. Barbara Boxer included. Boxer, who announced a year ago that she will seek reelection in 2010 and who has said she hopes to raise $20 million for her campaign, presumably needs to maintain good relations with contributors as well as other senators.

“If you’re in the Senate, you’re probably going to be working with at least one of them again when they don’t become president,” Jacobson said. “And that way you avoid the potential political problems in making enemies.” But the calculations can be very tricky. “A few of them are maybe speculating about cabinet appointments and don’t want to offend the potential winner,” Jacobson said.

Bay Area lawmakers are largely split. Sen. Dianne Feinstein was one of the earliest endorsements for the Clinton campaign. She is joined by Reps. Lynn Woolsey of Petaluma, Ellen Tauscher of Pleasanton, and Tom Lantos of San Mateo. “This is a very special moment for me because I have the opportunity to endorse the campaign of a U.S. Senator who I believe will be the first female president of the United States,” Feinstein said in a press release last July. “Hillary Clinton, I believe, has the experience, the heart, and the strength to be a great American president.”

Rep. Anna Eshoo, D-Atherton, waited until last week to announce her endorsement of Obama, joining Oakland’s Rep. Barbara Lee, Miller and Rep. Zoe Lofgren of San Jose. Like her colleagues, Eshoo emphasized the need for change as the reason for hopping on Obama’s bandwagon. “Barack Obama inspires me. He gives me hope,” Eshoo said in a press release Wednesday. “He challenges us to dream bigger and reach farther.” In Southern California, congressional endorsements are also split, sometimes between families. Rep. Linda Sanchez of Lakewood has endorsed Obama, while her sister Loretta, who represents the Anaheim area, a largely Latino district, has endorsed Clinton. Los Angeles Rep. Diane Watson, who was named an ambassador to Micronesia by President Bill Clinton, endorsed Hillary Clinton months ago.

Rep. Maxine Waters, also of Los Angeles, whose husband President Clinton named an ambassador to the Bahamas, made her endorsement of Clinton last week. “I know that I will have access for my constituents,” Waters told NPR’s Farai Chideya last week. “I need to be able to be a good advocate for them with someone who will understand, you know, my concrete proposals and be willing to engage me and talk with me and act on them.”

– Kim Geiger is a reporter for the California News Service, a project of the Graduate School of Journalism at UC Berkeley.

Published in Capitol Weekly

Hillary Clinton? Or Barack Obama? Democrats in the Chinese American community in the Bay Area seems to be divided by generation when it comes to choosing a Democratic presidential nominee on Tuesday – just like all the other Democrats in California.

“Many of us who are older tend to support Hillary because of her experience,” said Oakland City Council member Jean Quan. “There’s this generation thing.”

Quan helped gather about forty seniors at the Peony restaurant in the heart of Oakland Chinatown early last week to hit the telephones on behalf of Senator Clinton. “Call all the people you know to vote,” Quan said. “Let’s deliver California to Hillary.”

Quan, her hands waving up and down as she spoke, said Asians can make a difference for Clinton by turning out an additional 6000 to 7000 voters in Oakland. Like her, she said, seniors understand that the Clinton administration was good to the Asian community.

“There were a lot Asian American appointments (during the Clinton administration). I for instance was appointed by the Clinton administration to the Title 1 rule making committee,” Quan said, referring to a panel that helps distribute federal education funds. “I was chosen to represent the school board members, so I had the chance to work directly with Hillary. I realized she’s really smart. She knows the details. Some politicians only know the big picture and really don’t know the details. ” Quan said.

“We also vote for her for policy reasons,” Quan added. “Hillary has a better health plan than Obama.”

In addition to Quan, Oakland’s vice mayor Henry Chang, and City Council President Ignacio De La Fuente, also have endorsed Senator Clinton. The three council members organized the Chinatown seniors phone bank and paid for the dim sum and tea.

Picking up a piece of dim sum, 64 year-old He Min said Senator Obama’s attitude toward the Chinese community is fairly vague, which is why he was supporting Senator Clinton.

“I don’t feel much connection with Obama. I’m not sure what he can do for us, ” said He. ” When Hillary did something which hurt Asians, she corrected it immediately. I think she’s great.” He was referring to an incident in February 2007 when the Clinton campaign refused interview requests from Bay Area Chinese media. The campaign later apologized.

Carl Chan, a popular figure in Chinatown and an active member of the Oakland Chinatown Chamber of Commerce is a Republican. But he said he was supporting Senator Clinton and that he knows why other other seniors are as well.

“In the past few years, many people are frustrated with the Bush administration, because of the war, because of the failed economy. The leadership is not really there to revive the economy. The focus we always believed in was not there. Many of us like to see change. Change means something better, not worse. Especially as Asians we don’t like to see wars. Some of us, our parents, our grandparents, the seniors have gone through the war. They know war is not good for family and the people, ” said Chan. ” Therefore, we would see that many folks normally don’t vote, now they come out and vote.”

Chan’s opinion is shared by Robert Mui, a 78 year -old Oakland resident. Mui emigrated from Hong Kong nearly a decade ago. He said he came to this country for democracy not war.

“If the war goes on, the people in this country can no longer bear it,” Mui said. Focusing on the economy is the wise step to take. I believe Hillary will go for the right things.”

Chan, said he remembers a few years ago, that former president Bill Clinton came to Oakland and helped with the Oakland port project.

“Bill used to support the Bay Area. There is the strong tie with Clinton family. Thus Chinese in Oakland feel much closer with Hillary than Obama at this time,”said Chan. “Hillary does have an edge now.”

While the Chinatown seniors were sipping tea and calling their people for Hillary, 173 Asian Pacific Islanders registered on evite and joined actor Kelly Hu, for a party in San Francisco to support Obama.

Hu is from Hawaii, where Obama was born, and the electronic invitation emphasized the Illinois Senator’s multi-cultural background. “As a child of a multi-racial, multi-ethnic family that included Asian Americans, Obama lived in Indonesia, sharing some of the same personal experiences that many Asian immigrants in the United States have also experienced before arriving on these shores,” it said.

Aron Fung, a Chinese American in his early 20’s who attended Hu’s party said that he will definitely go out on Tuesday and vote for Obama.

“Obama represents a greater shift from the traditional, established system than any of the other candidates. Whether it is his ethnic background, thought process, age, or a combination of these and other factors does not matter. Rather, what he embodies is a stark contrast to the system that has brought America into a heavily volatile era and created a deeply confused nation,” he said.

A campus rally sponsored by UC Berkeley Students for Barack Obama late last week drew about one hundred enthusiastic supporters. Waving Obama signs and banners, the mostly student crowd joined two local hip-hop singers in a rap that shouted “Obama, victory 2008!”

Nineteen-year-old psychology major Mian Wei was one of the students rapping with the crowd.

“I’ll vote for Obama, “said Mian. “I saw Obama in 2004 at the Democratic convention and heard his speech. I was really inspired. It made me get interested in all these issues. Before, it was just kind of the lesser of the two evils. Now I can really get behind someone and take him to the top.”

Mian said her father supports Hillary Clinton and she understands that her father’s generation remembers the good times with former president Bill Clinton.

“At this point we really need new leadership,” Mian said.

Wu Nan is a reporter for the California News Service, a project of the Graduate School of Journalism at UC Berkeley.