Minnesotans of all political stripes congregated at house parties, restaurants and community centers throughout suburban Minneapolis to watch Senators McCain and Obama squabble over foreign policy issues and offer solutions to the financial crisis looming over this year’s election.

“It’s still a draw for me,” said Mark Johnson, who described himself as a Libertarian who has decided to vote for a major candidate this year because Minnesota is a battleground state. “It was useful and informative, but there were no big surprises,, ” he said of the debate, the first of three the presidential candidates will hold between now and October 15.

In recent weeks, polls have shown Obama pulling ahead in Minnesota, which went Democratic in 2000 and 2004. But the toss-up race for an open seat here in the state’s 3rd Congressional District offers a window on the battle both campaigns are waging for the votes of moderates and independents like Johnson.

The seat in this affluent suburb of Minneapolis has been held by the GOP since 1961, and Rep. Jim Ramstad, a moderate Republican, is vacating it after 18 years in Congress. Erik Paulsen, a former majority leader for the GOP in the Minnesota House of Representatives, and Democratic newcomer and Iraq war veteran, Ashwin Madia are vying to replace him.

Some of Madia’s supporters were among the 250 people who joined the Veterans for Obama at the Hopkins VFW, 10 miles east of downtown Minneapolis, to cheer on the Democratic candidate and hiss at his Republican foe.

Bill Cochrane, who was awarded a Purple Heart for his heroics in the Vietnam War, said his support for Obama was shored up in the debate.

“I was skeptical of Obama and I still don’t know him,” said the veteran once a  faithful Republican, who voted twice for George H.W. Bush. “In this debate he appeared to be the real deal. I am leaving here with a higher confidence that he can lead our country.”

Across town in Brooklyn Park, Tom and Kelly Gildow watched the debate with some close friends and family. Their middle income neighborhood launched former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura’s political career by electing the one time wrestler mayor in 1990.

Kelly Gildow, a Republican, said she will vote for McCain in November because he is “no nonsense” on national security and won’t raise taxes.

“He slam dunked the foreign policy issues. It’s hard to believe anything Obama said because of the lack of experience,” she said. “When Obama was talking about attacking Pakistan, I thought, wow, he showed how frightening it would be to have our national security in his hands.”

Supporters of both candidates claimed their man best addressed the nation’s economic concerns, but tended to agree that no one delivered a knock-out punch.

“It was like a fight when a guy is constantly jabbing you, he isn’t hit with a big blow, but he is making you feel uncomfortable,” said Republican Bill Ferguson, handing McCain the victory by decision.

A headline on the New York Times website read: “Democrats in Florida Are Near Plan for New Vote.”

According to the article, Florida Democrats were outlining plans to give the state a potentially decisive role in nominating the party’s next candidate for president. Sen. Bill Nelson was advocating for a mail-in contest to seat the delegates the state was denied after flouting party rules by holding an early primary on Jan. 29.

The article went on to quote a statement released by Florida Democrats in the House of Representatives: “Our House delegation is opposed to a mail-in campaign or any redo of any kind.” But they went on to concede that the party needed to, “reach an expedited solution that ensures our 210 delegates are seated.”

Florida Democrats, Sen. Clinton, Sen. Obama and Howard Dean, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, know that a re-vote in Florida will be crucial if the party wants to carry the state in November. Winning Florida would have given the last two general elections to the party. Consequently, Democrats don’t want to alienate Florida voters by shutting them out of an election that everyone seems to be excited about. Why Democrats couldn’t originally foresee the risk of shutting Florida out of the primary election is baffling. But if they hold the last primary, are the focus of the nation before the decision is turned over to the superdelegates, the eventual nominee could gain incredible traction in the state over Republican nominee Sen. John McCain.

The importance of every little squabble has been heightened in this prolonged primary election between Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton. So each candidate is jockeying for position in Florida. The fate of Florida and Michigan, another state stripped of their delegates for holding an early primary, will determine how each candidate frames their case to be the party nominee to the superdelegates.

Ideally, Sen. Clinton would like the Florida delegates to be seated according to the results of the Jan. 29 primary that she won by a whopping 17 point margin. But she would settle for a re-vote in Florida and Michigan, two states she should win if her coalition of women, working class, and older voters can hold. Then, with California, New York, Ohio and Texas also in the bank, Sen. Clinton could make a case that she should be the nominee since her states carry more electoral votes in a general election. But without pivotal Florida, Sen. Clinton’s argument would probably be dead in the water.

On Hardball with Chris Mathews, Obama embraced the idea of seating Florida delegates, but worried that a mail-in vote could lead to a stolen election. According to the Times article, Allan Katz, an Obama superdelegate, said the plan would produce, “lawsuits galore,” taking the election out of the people’s hands and putting it into the courts. But Sen. Obama probably knows that even with a win in Florida, it will be impossible for Sen. Clinton to overtake him in the delegate count without landslide victories across the board, which seems unlikely considering the stability of each candidates voting block. It will also be difficult for Sen. Clinton to convince the superdelegates to overturn the national popular vote when Sen. Obama has brought so many new faces into the voting arena. So expect Sen. Obama to eventually agree to a re-vote in Florida. A good showing would give him some momentum in the state for the November election assuming he is the eventual nominee. The real battle will not be fought over whether Florida has a re-vote but how its significance is sold to the public and the superdelegates.

For Universal Healthcare, The Answer is in the Stars

   For the first 16 minutes of Tuesday night’s Democratic Presidential debate on MSNBC, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama squabbled over the specifics of their proposed health care plans.

  And we didn’t hear anything that hasn’t been argued at nauseam over the course of the first 19 debates:

            Obama: Hillary’s plan requires a mandate that will force American families to buy health insurance even if they can’t afford it.

         Clinton: Obama’s plan will leave more than 15 million Americans uninsured.

  You would think an American President has the power of a British Prime Minister with a majority government the way Clinton and Obama bickered over very subtle differences in their plans.

  But the White House isn’t given a blank check. There is a little something in American government called checks and balances that can thwart the grandiose plans of any chief executive. And to pass groundbreaking legislation – like the proposed universal health care packages or the Civil Rights Act of 1964 – through Congress, all the stars need to line-up.

  The Democrats will probably control both houses of Congress in 2009, 60 votes are still needed in the Senate to overcome a filibuster, which as proven to be a major obstacle for Majority Leader Harry Reid. Its unlikely the Democrats will pick up another nine seats in November, so any healthcare reforms will need Republican support.

           Reformative legislation passes into law about once every generation. When President Lyndon Johnson passed the Civil Rights Act in 1964, several factors were working in his favor.

   First, the assassination of President John F. Kennedy cooked up a national appetite for following through on reformative initiatives proposed by the popular president. But the South still opposed the bill fervently. So Johnson’s experience as the Senate Majority Leader paid dividends. He knew which levers to pull in the upper house to get the 67 votes then required to pass a filibuster. He knew Senator Hubert Humphrey was an artist in persuasion, the right man to form bi-partisan coalition. He knew Senator Everett Dirksen, a man with a deep sense of history, was the perfect Republican to get on board. He knew how to wheel and deal, trading gifts to nudge those who were sitting on the fence.

  So when we pull out our telescopes next January, what kind of patterns will be the in sky?  Will a passionate health care debate in the general election rouse a national outcry for reform in 2009?  Who will have the craftiness to rally support across the aisles in an increasingly partisan Senate? Which Republican Senators will be willing to buck the party? Remember, in this scenario, John McCain would still be licking his battle wounds. What kind of compromises would a new president be willing to make to ensure this legislation passes? Will the package look even remotely similar to the mandate or subsidy packages proposed in the Ohio debate?

  A lot needs to happen before a universal healthcare package – without or without mandates – will be signed into law. Winning the Democratic nomination for President would be a start.

  Paul Gackle

The pundits did everything but bury Senator Hillary Clinton after Sen. Obama’s double-digit victory in the Wisconsin primary Tuesday night, despite her leads in both the Texas and Ohio polls where 218 delegates will be awarded March 4.

The Associated Press depicted her campaign as, “fading,” in the lead of their online recap of the vote. On CNN, Carl Bernstein went further, stating, “It isn’t going to be pretty for Clinton in Texas.” David Gergen drew a sports analogy: “Obama’s going into the fourth quarter with a 24 point lead.”

A 24 point lead? He’s only ahead in the delegate count by 62, give or take a few depending on your source. Two weeks ago, granted, before Sen. Obama racked up nine straight wins, Sen. Clinton’s 100 plus delegate lead after Super Tuesday was characterized as a dead heat by most news organizations.

Now, I’m not saying the media is responsible for Sen. Obama’s recent surge, nor am I saying they are manipulating the information in his favor. I’m just saying they are kind of acting like homers.

Political pundits are a lot like sports reporters – they root for a good storyline. Do you think it’s fun to call a blowout? Or cover the Miami Dolphins for an entire season when they go 1-15? No. The sports media wants a game like the Super Bowl: a David and Goliath battle, a historical comeback, one for the ages. So let’s face it, Sen. Obama is doing what no poll or political insider predicted he would do, comeback on the Clinton’s deeply rooted political machine.

But that doesn’t mean Hillary is dead. And knowing that her name is still Clinton, be sure that she has a pulse.

And weren’t they starting the funeral procession once before in New Hampshire. Didn’t Sen. Obama also wipe out a big poll lead there only to lose? If the media should be claiming any certainty, it should be that anything can happen.

Now, of course, Sen. Clinton will need double-digit victories in both Texas and Ohio to pull even, due to the manner in which the Democratic Party allocates their delegates. And I’m not saying that will happen. But she’s probably only down about 11 points – a touchdown, a two-point conversion and a late field goal could do it.

Paul Gackle