While Sen. Obama was increasing his lead in the delegate race Tuesday night in Mississippi, Democrats were digging trenches over what to do with Florida.
A headline on the New York Times website read: “Democrats in Florida Are Near Plan for New Vote.”
According to the article, Florida Democrats were outlining plans to give the state a potentially decisive role in nominating the party’s next candidate for president. Sen. Bill Nelson was advocating for a mail-in contest to seat the delegates the state was denied after flouting party rules by holding an early primary on Jan. 29.
The article went on to quote a statement released by Florida Democrats in the House of Representatives: “Our House delegation is opposed to a mail-in campaign or any redo of any kind.” But they went on to concede that the party needed to, “reach an expedited solution that ensures our 210 delegates are seated.”
Florida Democrats, Sen. Clinton, Sen. Obama and Howard Dean, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, know that a re-vote in Florida will be crucial if the party wants to carry the state in November. Winning Florida would have given the last two general elections to the party. Consequently, Democrats don’t want to alienate Florida voters by shutting them out of an election that everyone seems to be excited about. Why Democrats couldn’t originally foresee the risk of shutting Florida out of the primary election is baffling. But if they hold the last primary, are the focus of the nation before the decision is turned over to the superdelegates, the eventual nominee could gain incredible traction in the state over Republican nominee Sen. John McCain.
The importance of every little squabble has been heightened in this prolonged primary election between Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton. So each candidate is jockeying for position in Florida. The fate of Florida and Michigan, another state stripped of their delegates for holding an early primary, will determine how each candidate frames their case to be the party nominee to the superdelegates.
Ideally, Sen. Clinton would like the Florida delegates to be seated according to the results of the Jan. 29 primary that she won by a whopping 17 point margin. But she would settle for a re-vote in Florida and Michigan, two states she should win if her coalition of women, working class, and older voters can hold. Then, with California, New York, Ohio and Texas also in the bank, Sen. Clinton could make a case that she should be the nominee since her states carry more electoral votes in a general election. But without pivotal Florida, Sen. Clinton’s argument would probably be dead in the water.
On Hardball with Chris Mathews, Obama embraced the idea of seating Florida delegates, but worried that a mail-in vote could lead to a stolen election. According to the Times article, Allan Katz, an Obama superdelegate, said the plan would produce, “lawsuits galore,” taking the election out of the people’s hands and putting it into the courts. But Sen. Obama probably knows that even with a win in Florida, it will be impossible for Sen. Clinton to overtake him in the delegate count without landslide victories across the board, which seems unlikely considering the stability of each candidates voting block. It will also be difficult for Sen. Clinton to convince the superdelegates to overturn the national popular vote when Sen. Obama has brought so many new faces into the voting arena. So expect Sen. Obama to eventually agree to a re-vote in Florida. A good showing would give him some momentum in the state for the November election assuming he is the eventual nominee. The real battle will not be fought over whether Florida has a re-vote but how its significance is sold to the public and the superdelegates.
