For Universal Healthcare, The Answer is in the Stars
For the first 16 minutes of Tuesday night’s Democratic Presidential debate on MSNBC, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama squabbled over the specifics of their proposed health care plans.
And we didn’t hear anything that hasn’t been argued at nauseam over the course of the first 19 debates:
Obama: Hillary’s plan requires a mandate that will force American families to buy health insurance even if they can’t afford it.
Clinton: Obama’s plan will leave more than 15 million Americans uninsured.
You would think an American President has the power of a British Prime Minister with a majority government the way Clinton and Obama bickered over very subtle differences in their plans.
But the White House isn’t given a blank check. There is a little something in American government called checks and balances that can thwart the grandiose plans of any chief executive. And to pass groundbreaking legislation – like the proposed universal health care packages or the Civil Rights Act of 1964 – through Congress, all the stars need to line-up.
The Democrats will probably control both houses of Congress in 2009, 60 votes are still needed in the Senate to overcome a filibuster, which as proven to be a major obstacle for Majority Leader Harry Reid. Its unlikely the Democrats will pick up another nine seats in November, so any healthcare reforms will need Republican support.
Reformative legislation passes into law about once every generation. When President Lyndon Johnson passed the Civil Rights Act in 1964, several factors were working in his favor.
First, the assassination of President John F. Kennedy cooked up a national appetite for following through on reformative initiatives proposed by the popular president. But the South still opposed the bill fervently. So Johnson’s experience as the Senate Majority Leader paid dividends. He knew which levers to pull in the upper house to get the 67 votes then required to pass a filibuster. He knew Senator Hubert Humphrey was an artist in persuasion, the right man to form bi-partisan coalition. He knew Senator Everett Dirksen, a man with a deep sense of history, was the perfect Republican to get on board. He knew how to wheel and deal, trading gifts to nudge those who were sitting on the fence.
So when we pull out our telescopes next January, what kind of patterns will be the in sky? Will a passionate health care debate in the general election rouse a national outcry for reform in 2009? Who will have the craftiness to rally support across the aisles in an increasingly partisan Senate? Which Republican Senators will be willing to buck the party? Remember, in this scenario, John McCain would still be licking his battle wounds. What kind of compromises would a new president be willing to make to ensure this legislation passes? Will the package look even remotely similar to the mandate or subsidy packages proposed in the Ohio debate?
A lot needs to happen before a universal healthcare package – without or without mandates – will be signed into law. Winning the Democratic nomination for President would be a start.
Paul Gackle
